D
DUNDER MIFFLINGrowth Plan · 2026
Read the ask
◆ Executive briefVolume 01July 2026For internal review

Win the order
today. Earn
the routine forever.

A demand generation engine and product experience built to move first-time buyers toward subscription — without ever putting the sale at risk.

Prepared by
Patrick Johnson
Role
Director of E-Commerce · Candidate
Sections
10 · plus a 90-day plan
North star
Subscriber lifetime value
SCROLL§01 — The frame
§ 01The Strategic Frame

Capture the order.
Earn the subscription.

The prompt

“Show us how you'd build a demand generation engine and move customers from a one-time order toward subscription — without risking abandonment.”

The answer

Capture the one-time order with zero friction, then earn the subscription through flawless delivery, trust content, and depletion-timed invitations.

The journey we're engineering
01
Stranger
First-visit CVR
02
First-time buyer
60-day repeat rate
03
Repeat buyer
Subscription take rate
04
Subscriber
Net revenue retention
R1

Never gate the sale

Subscription is always the invited option, never the toll. The one-time order stays one click away at every step.

R2

Time the ask to depletion

The moment to pitch a subscription is when supply runs low — a run-out date we can predict from order size — not when a calendar says so.

R3

One north star

Subscriber lifetime value governs channel choices, budget moves, and product decisions. Subscriber-sourcing channels earn a higher allowable CAC.

§ 02Channel Strategy

Sequence by intent. Harvest first, build trust second.

The prompt

“Which channels would you prioritize — paid search, paid social, SEO, marketplaces, affiliate — and why? How would you sequence them?”

The answer

Paid search, Shopping, and marketplaces first — highest intent; paid social and SEO from day ~90; affiliate and referral from day ~180.

Phase 01
Days 0 – 90

Capture demand

  • ↳Paid search — brand + SKU-level non-brand (“copy paper bulk”, “legal pads case”)
  • ↳Google Shopping / Performance Max on the full catalog
  • ↳Marketplaces (Amazon B2B) — meet buyers where they already shop
  • ↳Retargeting foundation — pixel, audiences, feed hygiene

Highest-intent buyers first. These orders fund the engine and seed the lifecycle program with real customers.

Phase 02
Days 90 – 180

Scale & educate

  • ↳Meta prospecting — SMB owners, office managers, ops leads
  • ↳LinkedIn — procurement and facilities titles at 20–500 person firms
  • ↳SEO & content hub — buying guides, supply calculators
  • ↳Reviews & social-proof engine feeding every ad account

This is the trust layer — the difference between a stranger who orders once and one who's comfortable subscribing.

Phase 03
Days 180+

Compound

  • ↳Affiliate & B2B partnerships (office fit-out, IT resellers, PEOs)
  • ↳Referral program — offices refer offices
  • ↳Email / SMS matured into a true owned channel
  • ↳Test emerging placements from the 10% incubation budget

Owned and earned channels drive blended CAC down as the subscriber base compounds.

EXECUTION
Six moves in order
01

Tracking before spend

HowGA4 + server-side tags, ad pixels, conversion events tested with live orders before any campaign launches.

WhyEvery budget decision depends on knowing which click produced which order — spend before tracking is unreadable.

02

Brand + high-intent search

HowGoogle Ads brand campaign plus non-brand groups by product line (“copy paper bulk”), target-CPA bidding.

WhyThese searchers already want the product — the cheapest revenue, and it seeds the lifecycle list with real buyers.

03

Shopping / Performance Max

HowClean Merchant Center feed with search-first titles; PMax with new-customer acquisition goals enabled.

WhyPrice and image shown before the click pre-qualifies traffic — higher conversion at lower cost.

04

Amazon Business + Subscribe & Save

HowFBA on hero SKUs; fund a 5–10% S&S discount to earn the subscription badge.

WhyMany buyers start on Amazon regardless — capture them there, and let S&S train subscription behavior we benefit from.

05

Social prospecting at day ~90

HowMeta lookalikes built from the buyer list; LinkedIn job-title targeting; creative made from proof assets.

WhyCold audiences need proof to convert — and proof doesn't exist until reviews and case studies accumulate.

06

Affiliate + referral at day ~180

HowCommission program for office fit-out firms and IT resellers; two-sided referral credit for offices.

WhyPay-on-performance channels compound with reputation and pull blended CAC down as the base grows.

§ 03Paid Spend Allocation

A 70 / 20 / 10 portfolio with rules for moving money.

The prompt

“How would you think about budget allocation across channels? How would you decide what's working and reallocate over time?”

The answer

A 70/20/10 portfolio — proven, scaling, tests — reallocated weekly on cost-per-order, monthly on LTV-to-CAC, quarterly on incrementality.

Illustrative starting allocation
% of paid media
Paid search + Shopping45%
Marketplaces20%
Paid social20%
Affiliate / partners5%
Testing incubator10%
70%
Proven performers

At or below target cost-per-order, with healthy new-customer share.

20%
Scaling bets

Channels beating target 3+ consecutive weeks earn a 10–15% budget step-up.

10%
Structured tests

New placements, audiences, offers — every test has a kill criterion going in.

WEEKLY

Cost-per-order and subscription-attach by channel vs. target. Winners scale; losers explain themselves.

MONTHLY

Cohort LTV-to-CAC by channel. A subscriber-sourcing channel earns a higher allowable CAC.

QUARTERLY

Incrementality checks (geo holdouts, brand-search pause tests) to keep platform-reported ROAS honest.

EXECUTION
Five money rules
01

Set target economics first

HowContribution margin per order → a target cost-per-order, plus a higher allowable CAC for subscriber-sourcing channels.

Why“Is it working?” is unanswerable without a target — and two targets protect the channels that source subscribers.

02

Deploy 70 / 20 / 10

How70% proven, 20% scaling, 10% ring-fenced tests — each written up with a hypothesis and a kill criterion.

WhyForces continuous innovation without ever letting experiments threaten the P&L.

03

Weekly reallocation ritual

HowMonday scorecard: CPO + sub-attach vs. target. Beat it 3 straight weeks → +10–15%; miss 3 → cut 20% and diagnose.

WhyRules remove ego and recency bias from budget calls; three weeks separates climate from weather.

04

Monthly cohort review

HowLTV-to-CAC by channel and cohort month; re-rank channels by subscriber value produced, not order cost.

WhyPlatform dashboards optimize last-click orders — this asks which dollar bought the most future revenue.

05

Quarterly incrementality

HowGeo holdouts (pause 3–4 matched cities for 3 weeks) plus brand-search pause tests.

WhyAd platforms grade their own homework; honest audits typically free 10–20% of wasted budget.

Money moves when the data says so — the portfolio is a system of rules, not a set of opinions.

§ 04Lifecycle & Retention

The first 45 days:
from one order to an invitation.

The prompt

“How would you nurture a first-time, one-off buyer toward a subscription? What would that email / SMS / lifecycle program look like?”

The answer

A Day 0–40 email/SMS flow that builds trust first and invites subscription at the predicted run-out date — with a reorder path at every step.

Every trigger is keyed to a predicted run-out date (order size ÷ office headcount) — not the calendar. A 10-person office burns a 10-ream case in about five weeks; that's when the subscription pitch lands.

D0
Order confirmation

Set delivery expectations. No pitch — just deliver flawlessly.

D3
Brand story

Who we are, why 12k offices trust us. Delivery + quality proof.

D10
Usage check-in

One-click reorder shortcut, review ask, support hand-raise.

D21
Depletion math

“You'll run out around Aug 14.” Personalized, useful, honest.

◆ THE ASK WINDOW
D30
Subscription invite

Timed to run-out. First-delivery discount, cancel-anytime.

◆ THE ASK WINDOW
D40
SMS nudge / reorder

Easy reorder path either way; re-invite at second purchase.

SEGMENTATION

Single-SKU buyers get depth (paper mastery); multi-category buyers get breadth (one delivery for the whole supply closet) — from order one.

THE GUARDRAIL

Every touch keeps a no-subscription path to purchase. We'd rather win the order than force the ask.

§ 05Content & Organic Social

Trust content — the creative pipeline for paid.

The prompt

“What role does organic social and content play, if any, especially in building enough trust for a stranger to subscribe?”

The answer

A central role: four trust pillars (proof, utility, people, brand), LinkedIn-first distribution, and every organic winner recycled as a paid ad.

01
PILLAR
Proof

Case studies, review walls, on-time delivery stats. The receipts that de-risk a recurring commitment.

02
PILLAR
Utility

Office-ops templates, a supply-run calculator, buying guides. Ranks in SEO, captures emails, earns goodwill.

03
PILLAR
People

Office-manager hero content on LinkedIn — real customers, real supply closets, real Mondays.

04
PILLAR
Behind the brand

Sourcing, sustainability, the warehouse floor. Humanizes a commodity product.

Distribution: LinkedIn is primary — that's where the B2B buyer lives. Meta carries retargeting sequences. Every trust asset becomes an ad.

EXECUTION
Five plays
01

Four pillars, steady cadence

HowProof, Utility, People, Behind-the-brand — 2–3 pieces per week, quality over volume.

WhyEach pillar answers a specific objection a stranger has before committing to a recurring relationship.

02

Ship utility assets first

HowSupply calculator plus 2–3 SEO buying guides in month one, lightly gated (email optional).

WhyUtility compounds — it ranks in search, captures emails, and powers the depletion-email logic.

03

LinkedIn primary, Meta retargeting

HowNative LinkedIn posts 3×/week; all site visitors synced to Meta for trust-asset retargeting sequences.

WhyThe B2B buyer lives on LinkedIn; Meta's job isn't discovery — it's staying visible to people who already met us.

04

Pipe organic winners into paid

HowMonthly review of top posts by engagement — winners get ad budget behind them the same week.

WhyThe audience already voted; promoting proven content beats guessing what creative will work.

05

Systematize proof collection

HowDay-10 review requests from the lifecycle flow, quarterly case-study interviews, a live on-time delivery stat.

WhyReviews and stats are the ammunition every other channel fires — content can't manufacture trust without them.

§ 06AI & Tooling

AI where it compounds — not where it's fashionable.

The prompt

“Where would you use AI or modern martech tools to drive efficiency or performance — creative, personalization, targeting, analytics?”

The answer

Four places: AI creative variants, predictive replenishment + propensity scoring, on-site and email personalization, and automated reporting — humans approve all.

α

Creative production

AI variant engines generate ad copy and versions by vertical — a law firm, a school, and a startup see different proof points. Ship 10× the variants; a human QA gate protects the brand.

β

Predictive replenishment

A consumption model per account (order size, headcount, reorder gaps) powers the depletion-timed lifecycle and produces subscription-propensity scores that focus paid retargeting on likely subscribers.

γ

Personalization

Dynamic PDP modules and email content by segment, industry, and order history — the returning buyer sees their cadence suggestion, not a generic pitch.

δ

Analytics & reporting

MMM-lite budget model to sanity-check attribution, anomaly alerts on spend and conversion, and automated weekly scorecards so the team spends time deciding, not assembling.

OPERATING PRINCIPLE

AI drafts, humans decide — speed without brand risk.

EXECUTION
Four deployments
01

Creative variant engine

HowBrand voice guide + winning copy feed AI-generated variants per vertical (law firm, school, startup); a human approves everything before it ships.

WhyAd fatigue is the silent killer of paid performance; verticalized proof points lift relevance and CTR — and the approval gate protects the brand.

02

Replenishment + propensity scoring

HowRules-based run-out model first; train on actual reorder gaps at ~1,000 customers; high scorers sync to paid as a retargeting audience.

WhyOne dataset, two jobs — it times the lifecycle emails and focuses ad spend on the non-subscribers most likely to convert.

03

On-site + email personalization

HowDynamic PDP module and email content blocks by segment, industry, and order history — returning buyers see their suggested cadence, not a generic pitch.

WhyA generic pitch to a returning buyer contradicts the core promise — that we pay attention so they don't have to.

04

Automated reporting + anomaly alerts

HowChannel and order data piped to a BI layer; AI drafts the weekly scorecard narrative and flags anomalies — spend spikes, conversion drops, subscription-SKU stockouts — to Slack.

WhyMondays should be spent deciding, not assembling — and alerts catch the expensive problems in hours instead of at month-end.

§ 07Measurement

Every goal gets its own metric, owner, and test roadmap.

The prompt

“What does success look like? What metrics would you track weekly / monthly across goals like first-visit CVR, subscriptions, and upsell?”

The answer

Success = rising first-visit CVR, subscription share, and order value — each with its own metric tree, on a weekly scorecard and a monthly cohort deep-dive.

GOAL 01

Lift first-visit CVR

METRIC

Sitewide + PDP conversion, split new vs. returning

LEVERS

PDP tests, offer clarity, page speed

GOAL 02

Drive subscriptions

METRIC

Take rate at PDP / cart / post-purchase · 60-day cohort subscription conversion

LEVERS

Placement, incentive depth, timing

GOAL 03

Grow order value

METRIC

AOV, attach rate, blended cost-per-outcome

LEVERS

Bundles, thresholds, case-size nudges

WEEKLY

Steer the ship

  • →Spend + cost-per-order by channel vs. target
  • →First-visit CVR (new vs. returning)
  • →Subscription-attach rate by placement
  • →Email / SMS revenue and flow health
  • →Inventory & stock status on subscription SKUs — a stockout kills subscribers
MONTHLY

Steer the strategy

  • →Cohort LTV-to-CAC by channel
  • →Churn + second-delivery survival rate
  • →% of revenue on subscription (target: climbing)
  • →Blended MER against contribution-margin goals
  • →Incrementality readouts → next quarter's allocation
EXECUTION
Four builds
01

One metric tree per goal

HowFirst-visit CVR, subscriptions, and order value each get their own metrics, a named owner, and a running test backlog.

WhySeparation catches the dangerous test — one that lifts a goal by quietly hurting another (a pushy modal that raises take rate but kills CVR).

02

Weekly scorecard

HowAuto-generated one-pager: spend + CPO by channel vs. target, CVR new vs. returning, sub-attach by placement, email/SMS revenue, subscription-SKU inventory.

WhyWeekly numbers steer tactics while there's still time to act — and a stockout on a subscription SKU cancels subscribers who never come back.

03

Monthly deep-dive

HowCohort LTV-to-CAC by channel, churn + second-delivery survival, % of revenue recurring, blended MER, incrementality readouts.

WhyMonthly numbers steer strategy — they answer whether the flywheel is actually turning, not whether last week was good.

04

Pre-register every test

HowBacklog per goal prioritized by impact × ease; hypothesis and success threshold documented before launch.

WhyPrevents the classic measurement sin — running ten tests and declaring victory on whichever happened to move.

§ 08PDP Teardown & Blueprint

Same psychology. Adapted for a first-order B2B buyer.

The prompt

“Identify and walk us through what you consider an excellent PDP, and how it should nudge a first-time buyer toward subscribing without feeling pushy.”

The answer

Copy the psychology, invert the default: one-time pre-selected, subscription invited three times at rising trust — PDP, cart, post-purchase.

THE BENCHMARK

Amazon Subscribe & Save — the category-defining nudge.

AMAZON.COM · S&S MODULE (STYLIZED)

Premium Copy Paper — 10-Ream Case

★★★★★ 4.7 · 12,483 ratings
Deliver every: 2 months ▾
No commitment · Skip or cancel anytime · Reminder email before every delivery
Why it converts
  1. 01

    Savings shown as money, not a concept — $52.24 beside a struck-through $54.99, with a visible path to $46.74. The math is done for you.

  2. 02

    The tiered reward (5% → 15% with 5+ items) turns one subscription into a basket habit and raises order value.

  3. 03

    Cadence control (1–6 months) reframes commitment as scheduling. The buyer feels in charge of the relationship.

  4. 04

    Risk reversal everywhere: skip, cancel anytime, and a reminder email before each charge. Commitment anxiety is engineered out.

  5. 05

    Subscribing is framed as the sensible default — yet reversing it is one click. Nudge, not toll.

+10–15%
LISTING CVR LIFT FROM S&S BADGE
1.5–2.5×
SUBSCRIBER LTV VS. ONE-TIME
THE ANATOMY
Eight elements, top to bottom

An excellent PDP, walked through element by element.

Applied to a Dunder Mifflin hero SKU — Premium Copy Paper, 10-Ream Case. Each block earns the next scroll and moves the buyer one step closer to subscribing on their own terms.

01Above the fold

Hero that answers the buying question

Product name, use-case qualifier, and the two facts a bulk buyer needs before they scroll: unit economics and delivery window.

ExamplePremium Copy Paper — 10-Ream Case · 96 bright, 20 lb · $0.11/sheet · Free 2-day delivery to 90210
02Trust bar

Proof before persuasion

A single horizontal strip of receipts under the title — rating, review count, on-time %, refund policy. Static, not animated, so it reads as fact.

Example★ 4.7 (12,483) · 98.6% on-time · Free returns · Ships from 3 US warehouses
03Price module

Two options, one clear default

Side-by-side price cards. One-time is pre-selected for first-time visitors; subscription is fully priced, badged with dollar savings, and one click away.

ExampleOne-time $54.99 ● Subscribe & save 15% $46.74 ($8.25 off) · skip or cancel anytime
04Cadence estimator

Solve the scariest question — 'how often?'

A three-field mini-tool answers cadence before the buyer has to guess. Fed by the same headcount signal the lifecycle emails use.

ExampleOffice size 10 · Print volume Standard → We suggest every 5 weeks (edit anytime)
05Delivery promise

A named, dated commitment

Not 'ships soon' — an actual date tied to their ZIP. This is the promise the subscription is really asking them to trust.

ExampleOrder in the next 3h 12m · Arrives Tue, Jul 14 · Signature not required
06Reviews & Q&A

Show the office-manager voice

Filter reviews by buyer type (Office manager · IT · School). Pin the top question that predicts churn: 'What if we run out early?'

Example"Skipped one month when we closed for the holidays — took ten seconds." — Priya, office manager, 47-person firm
07Sticky add-to-cart

The one-time button never moves

As the buyer scrolls, a slim sticky bar keeps 'Add to cart' one tap away. Subscription lives beside it as a labeled toggle, not a takeover.

Example[ Add to cart — $54.99 ] ○ Make it automatic · save 15%
08Post-add drawer

The soft second ask

When they add to cart, the drawer confirms the order first, then invites subscription in one line — declining changes nothing about checkout.

ExampleAdded ✓ · Want this again in ~5 weeks? Subscribe for $46.74 — skip anytime. [ No thanks ]
THE RULE THAT TIES IT TOGETHER

Every element on the page must earn the buyer's next scroll — and none of them may block the one-time order.

THE BLUEPRINT

Three invitations, zero tolls.

Copy the psychology, invert the default. A first-order buyer never has to opt out of anything.

STEP 01
ON THE PDP

Subscription is priced, visible, and pre-configured — but one-time is the pre-selected default. Deliberately inverts Amazon's default — right for a brand with earned trust, wrong for a first date.

“Office size: 10 people → we suggest every 5 weeks”
STEP 02
IN THE CART

One quiet line: “Make it automatic — save 15%.” A toggle, not a modal. Declining changes nothing about checkout.

“Subscribe: $46.74/case — save 15%”
STEP 03
POST-PURCHASE

Confirmation page and the Day-30 invite (timed to predicted run-out) offer the subscription after we've proven we deliver — the highest-trust, lowest-risk moment to ask.

“Most offices choose every 6 weeks · Skip anytime”
“The buyer who says ‘not yet’ three times is still a customer. The one we pressure is gone.
EXECUTION
Five ship steps
01

Audit PDPs vs. the standard

HowScore every template on the S&S checklist: dollar savings shown, cadence control, risk-reversal copy, review visibility, delivery promise.

WhyYou can't close unlisted gaps — and the audit sets the conversion baseline every test is judged against.

02

Dual-option module, one-time default

HowSide-by-side price cards; subscription shows dollar savings + “skip or cancel anytime”; one-time purchase pre-selected.

WhyThe deliberate Amazon inversion — a first-order buyer who hasn't met us yet should never have to opt out of anything.

03

Cadence estimator

How“Office size: 10 people → we suggest every 5 weeks” — fed by the same headcount data the lifecycle program uses.

WhyIt solves the scariest subscription question (how often?) and demonstrates the core promise before they've paid a dollar.

04

Invitations two and three

HowCart: one quiet toggle line, no modal. Post-purchase: confirmation-page offer + the Day-30 invite timed to run-out.

WhyTrust rises through the purchase — three soft asks at rising trust beat one hard ask at the lowest-trust moment.

05

Test in strict sequence

HowOne variable at a time — placement, then incentive depth, then copy — judged on subscription take rate AND overall CVR together.

WhyThe guardrail made operational: a variant that lifts subscriptions by suppressing orders fails by definition.

§ 09Execution

The first 90 days.

01 · Days 1 – 30

Baseline & quick wins

  • ✓Tracking + analytics audit; fix attribution gaps first
  • ✓CAC / LTV baseline by channel and cohort
  • ✓Launch brand search, Shopping, retargeting
  • ✓Ship post-purchase email flow v1
  • ✓PDP audit against the teardown standard
02 · Days 31 – 60

Build the engine

  • ✓Depletion-timed lifecycle program live
  • ✓Subscription-offer tests at PDP, cart, post-purchase
  • ✓Meta retargeting sequences on trust assets
  • ✓Weekly scorecard operational with targets
  • ✓Marketplace listings optimized for the sub badge
03 · Days 61 – 90

Scale what works

  • ✓First full budget reallocation cycle
  • ✓LinkedIn prospecting pilot (ops + procurement titles)
  • ✓SEO content hub live (calculators, guides)
  • ✓First subscriber-cohort readout → Q2 targets
  • ✓Affiliate / partnership shortlist and outreach
§ 10The Flywheel

Effortless orders fund the engine. Trust earns the invitation. Depletion timing makes the ask feel like service, not sales.

01
10–15%
of revenue on subscription by month 12
the directional goal that anchors the roadmap
02
2×+
LTV-to-CAC on subscriber cohorts
enforced by channel-level allowable-CAC rules
03
<25%
cancel-before-second-delivery
the honesty check that we sold a service, not a discount

◆ DIRECTIONAL TARGETS — TO BE RE-BASED AGAINST ACTUALS IN THE DAY-30 BASELINE

Win the order today.
Earn the routine forever.

Patrick Johnson
12+ years leading performance marketing — Hilton · Avery Dennison · KEEN Footwear
PATRICKJOHNSONRESUME.COM